Topsy turvy weather models indicate three-way split on weekend weather

Latest data shows the main weather models easing off on the prospect of a colder spell of weather next weekend.

Much of Europe is set to cool down significantly as the coming week progresses while, at the same time, Atlantic systems will track closer to Ireland's west coast. As things stand, the average of all output places Ireland on a boundary between a milder Atlantic airmass and a much colder airmass.

The outlook for our weather for next weekend into the following week splits 3 ways in terms of % likelihood:

- Average conditions with temps 6-9c, small rainfall totals, generally overcast with light to moderate winds (50%)

- Much colder conditions with an easterly component (25%), temps 2-5c, some wintry precipitation, cold windchill effect

- Milder and more unsettled conditions with a south-westerly to westerly component, wind and rain, temps 8-11c (25%)

Data analysis

The data in the first graph relates to daytime highs for Mullingar, County Westmeath over the next 9 days, based on the latest output from four of the main weather models. The main theme is for a general rise in temperatures next weekend. Individual features of the data include the sharp drop in temperatures for Friday on the ECM with a risk of wintry precipitation, the continuation of cool weather beyond the weekend on the GEM, and the ACCESS-G (UKMO) indicating significantly milder weather from the weekend.

Meanwhile, analysis of the last 16 runs of the GFS for Mullingar for midday on Monday, 17th February suggest rather benign conditions with little rainfall and average to slightly above temperatures for the time of year.

Looking ahead

We are very much in a wait and see scenario in terms of how the models adjust to the anticipated amplification of heights over Scandinavia toward Greenland, and the positioning and interaction of depressions to our west and over the Benelux countries with the high pressure. Small adjustments to these features could significantly revise upward or downward the likelihood of the 3 possible outcomes identified at the top of the post.

The uncertainty regarding our weather is further emphasised in Met Éireann’s met.ie outlook, which does not extend beyond Thursday.