Models hint at colder weather next weekend

This evening's run of the European model (ECM) amplifies the block from Scandinavia through Greenland and drags in very cold northeasterly winds next weekend into the start of the following week.

This afternoon's UKMO backs a colder solution by later next week with a very cold continental airmass extending west into Ireland and Britain.

This is well beyond the reliable forecasting period (3-5 days) but the potential for a much colder spell of weather from mid-month is increasing.

Based on all output, the risk of same is now around 50%. A long road to travel for such an outcome to verify.