There has been much talk over the past week about potential snow and severe cold heading our way. Analysis of the US weather model (GFS) suggests such an outcome is unlikely, at least up to mid-month.
Forecasting becomes less reliable beyond the 3-5 day window, but trends can be picked up when cross checking successive runs of weather models.
In a review of the last 5 runs of the GFS using the Midlands on midday, Monday February 17th as the source point, our mid-month weather looks like bringing average temperatures for the time of year (5-8c) and relatively low rainfall totals.
Ireland will find itself on the boundary between Atlantic low-pressure systems and high pressure to our northeast, a meteorological no man’s land that would produce rather benign conditions overall. Any rainfall would likely be restricted to the western half of Ireland with drier conditions further east.
The good news is that this week’s spell of weather will allow for good drying conditions which should continue for much of Ireland into much of the following week. The threat of Atlantic storms tracking across Ireland over the next fortnight is presently low as high pressure inhibits their progress eastward (see GFS panels below for February 17th).
The above source point of 17th February will be updated accordingly in the coming days to see if there is a trend towards a change to the outlook.
