Analysis of subsequent runs of the Global Forecast System (GFS) weather model from Saturday evening through to this afternoon’s run indicate that the prospects of a cold spell of weather from later this week into the beginning of next week remain low at 30%, a slight rise on yesterday's potential risk.
Much of Europe is set to cool down significantly as the coming week progresses while, at the same time, Atlantic systems will track closer to Ireland's west coast.
As things stand, the average of all output places Ireland on a boundary between a milder Atlantic airmass and a much colder airmass. There is a 50% likelihood of such an outcome.
The outlook for our weather for late this weekend into the following week splits 3 ways in terms of % likelihood:
- (50%) Average conditions with temps 5-8c, low rainfall totals, generally overcast with light to moderate winds (50%)
- (30%) Much colder conditions with an easterly component, temps 2-5c, some wintry precipitation, cold windchill effect
- (20%) Milder and more unsettled conditions with a south-westerly to westerly component, wind and rain, temps 9-12c.
The GFS model model runs four times a day, and produces forecasts for up to 16 days in advance, but with decreased spatial resolution after 10 days. The below data is based off the output of the 32 members, which include operational and control runs and 30 lower-resolution members, referred to as the GEFS ensemble.
